Why Not Moss?

The tight end position is the most frustrating in all of fantasy football. If you don’t own Kelce, you are playing with fire. Yes, Waller has had two good seasons, but came out of no where. Kittle had one monster season, but has dealt with injuries. Andrews was a bit disappointing last year, the list goes on and on. We all just hope we can get that guy who we can put in and they don’t put up a goose egg.

Let me give you a sleeper for the year, someone who could be that consistent contributor to your lineup. Not saying all-star, but consistent, that’s all we want right? 

Thaddeus Moss just signed off of waivers with the Bengals. Let me start with the fact that he played with Burrow at LSU. Chemistry is important. It will be even more important in an offseason where guys might not be able to get as much time together because of covid protocols and shortened preseason. 

In his one season at LSU with Burrow,  he put up 47 receptions, 570 yards and 4 TD’s. Yes, not eye popping, but remember that’s over 12 games. That’s an average of 45.7 yards a game, remember that number for later. So calculate that over a 16 game season, that’s 761 yards. He had 47 receptions, that’s almost four receptions a game, so somewhere around 60 receptions over 16 games. He had 4 TD’s, that’s .33 a game, times it by 16 and you have 5. So 60 receptions, 761 yards and 5 TD’s. That puts him at TE 4 last year. 

Ok, ok, that was college this is the NFL, fair enough. Let’s go a bit deeper. As of today, the only guys above him on the depth chart are Drew Sample, who is more of a blocker and CJ Uzomah. Nothing too scary at the moment. Uzomah averaged 43.5 yards a game and 5 targets before going down with injury. Drew Sample averaged 3.31 targets a game and 21 yards a game. Yes, I realize these numbers don’t pop out, but Uzomah’s 43.5 yards a game ranked 10th before he was injured, small sample size, but 5 targets a game also looked good before going down for the year. Sample wasn’t going to get targeted the way Uzomah did, because he’s more of the blocking type. It was only two games, but Uzomah was being used in this offence! Even if Moss was somewhere in the middle of Sample, who played 5 games with Finely and Allen, and Uzomah, it would be 35 yards a game let’s say, that’s 560 yards. That would put him fairly even with Eric Ebron who was TE 15 in yards and 14th overall in fantasy with 5 TD’s. TJ Hockenson the number 5 ranked TE last year averaged 45.19 yards a game and had 6 TD’s. 

Remember when I asked you to remember that number from earlier? I know college football is not the same as the NFL and he will be challenged more, but with the built in chemistry with Burrow and with Uzomah’s target share from last year, Moss could put up top 10 TE numbers. You might argue that he will be the fourth or fifth target at best behind Chase, Higgins, Boyd and Mixon. But need I remind you that LSU had Chase, CEH, Justin Jefferson, and Terrance Marshall were soaking up targets as well. I am not saying run out and trade your second round pick for Moss today. I would suggest maybe a late 3rd or early fourth, or he might just be the perfect throw in piece. But I am guessing in most dynasty leagues he’s on the waiver wire. In start ups you will be able to pick him up in the last couple rounds. He does have an injury history that can’t be ignored, he missed a whole year of college because of injury and all of last year. I am looking to acquire Moss in my dynasty leagues. Especially if I am not confident in my TE room. There always seems to be that TE that comes out of no where, why not Moss this year?